Sharpen Your Risk Radar

"Luck is what happens when preparation meets opportunity." – Seneca

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Every pharmacy faculty member and academic leader talk about opportunity—but few talk about risk. Not the financial kind, but the kind that quietly shapes careers, programs, and reputations.

The greatest threat isn’t usually a crisis—it’s failing to notice what’s changing soon enough to act. Enrollment patterns shift, expectations evolve, and policies tighten long before most of us realize the landscape has moved.

Leaders who excel don’t just plan—they scan for signals that the future is already arriving. They notice weak indicators before they become strong ones. They interpret patterns instead of reacting to problems.

As John Kotter reminds us, effective leadership isn’t about control—it’s about anticipation. Building a “risk radar” strengthens decision-making, protects what matters most, and positions teams for sustainable success.

Here are four practical ways to sharpen your radar and achieve next-level results.

1. Likelihood: How probable is it?

Key Idea: We should look for patterns, not surprises. Small shifts—like declining applications, reduced engagement, or lagging research productivity—often signal bigger issues ahead. As Lafley and Martin emphasize in Playing to Win, strategic advantage comes from seeing early where the game is changing.

Try This:

• Set your social media to share important updates regarding trends in your industry. This gives you insight for what might be ahead.

• Seek input from individuals outside your circle to brainstorm signals they see that could impact you.

Example:
A college notices a three-year decline in enrollment but assumes it’s cyclical. By year four, applications fall sharply. Leaders who spotted the pattern early should have updated messaging, sought input from consumers, strengthened pipelines, and stabilized outcomes before a crisis hits.

2. Impact: How severe could it be?

Key Idea: Not all risks deserve equal attention. Some are inconvenient; others threaten your mission or overall success. Richard Rumelt reminds us in Good Strategy/Bad Strategy that strong strategy focuses energy on a few critical challenges—the ones that matter most.

Try This:

• Ask: If this risk materialized, what would it disrupt?

• Use peer groups or mentors to prioritize risk lists.

• Allocate attention and focused time where the impact is highest.

Example:
A faculty member pairs up with trusted colleagues to identify the top risk areas that could limit their promotion and tenure success. They form a cadence to meet and focus on the most important areas that they see as success and areas for improvement.

3. Velocity: How fast could it happen?

Key Idea: Some risks build slowly; others strike overnight. Velocity matters because the faster a risk moves, the less time you have to respond. The pandemic reminded all of higher education that agility isn’t optional—it’s a leadership capability.

Programs that already had hybrid infrastructure pivoted within weeks. those without it spent months catching up. The takeaway: anticipate how quickly disruption could unfold— and practice agility before you need it.

4. Resourcing: Do you have what it takes to respond?

Key Idea: Even when risks are visible, capacity often determines the outcome.

Do you have the people, time, and systems to respond effectively?
This reflects the Resource-Based View of Leadership, which emphasizes that lasting advantage comes from distinctive capabilities—expertise, culture, and adaptability—that competitors can’t easily copy.

Resilient leaders invest in readiness before risk arrives.

Try This:

• Pick one areas of your work— your program, team, or career path— and assess it through the four lenses:

  • What’s most likely to challenge success this year?

  • What’s the potential impact if it happens?

  • How fast could it unfold?

  • Do you have the resources or skills to manage it?

• Identify the area that feels most vulnerable and make it a priority for preparation, not panic.

Final Thoughts:

In leadership— and in life— risk is constant. Risk isn’t a problem to avoid but a signal to interpret. Awareness leads to better choices and stronger positioning. Standing still is its own form of risk. Growth in academia requires scanning the horizon, not just managing the present. In fact, preparation beats reaction every time.

Because the most effective leaders don’t just wait for risk to arrive—they build their radar to see it coming.

Next Steps to Refine Your Risk Radar:

Looking for a thought partner to help refine your risk radar to achieve next-level results? We offer professional coaching and mentorship to support your growth in academic pharmacy. Together, you can achieve success.

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Join @AACP for dynamic conversations pertaining to academic pharmacy.

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